Simulations place people or bots in decision-making roles, in the middle of scenarios, if you will, and show us branching possibilities. The preceding scenarios depict futures as narratives. Zoe Schneeweiss helpfully turned them into a single infographic:ĮDITED TO ADD: The Atlantic Council offers four scenarios for the war’s ending. Note the chained sequences of effects, along with rating them for relative likelihood of occurring:Ī Bloomberg column considers three scenarios for how western economic sanctions could impact Russia and the world. Josh Calder created another infographic, this time of what might result from the war. A Foreign Affairs article offers a range of outcomes following Russian success in Ukraine. Interestingly, the article breaks down pros and cons, concluding that such an invasion should be unlikely to occur.Īssuming war, other scenarios appear. The Russian-led Valdai Club published an invasion story which looks pretty close to reality so far. The reality looks most like Hold East Ukraine. STRATFOR created several scenarios describing different Russian invasion strategies: Josh Calder shared this infographic with me, developing a sequence of events for three different ways forward: diplomacy, irregular war, and a conventional attack. Since current events gradually render these alternate histories, they may also serve as interesting historical notes. I’ll share some here in the hope they give us some ways of thinking about where the crisis may be headed. Indeed, it looks like the Biden administration took both simulations and scenarios seriously in their planning. People have been creating scenarios and simulations of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict since it began in 2014, as well as some predating that time. Simulations can also shed light on difficult and emergent decisions, as well as surprising us as the future often can. Simulations perform a similar function, as a given run-through constitutes a narrative. Multiple scenarios give us ways to see divergent possibilities. As stories they are very accessible, allowing us to imagine ourselves in them. I find scenarios help us think about futures usefully. A scenario is ant object to think through, while a simulation gives users ways to intervene in the problem. A simulation may resemble a game, or be one, as with wargames or business simulations. A simulation, in contrast, is either a human or computer representation of a situation, where people (or software) make decisions to drive that situation to an end state. Typically we build them based on one or two driving forces, and often produce several together for comparative purposes. A scenario is small story about a potential future. This may be where simulations and scenarios become useful. Will Putin conquer the whole nation, or move on to new targets? How will the western sanction strategy impact Russia? As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, many wonder how it might conclude.
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